IMF revises economic forecast for Liechtenstein upwards

In this publication, the IMF assesses the economic situation in the world and in all IMF member countries every six months. Overall, the Fund considers the global economy to be more resilient than was expected in the spring in view of the many current challenges.

For Liechtenstein as well, the IMF has revised its economic forecast for the current year significantly upwards: the country is projected to record real GDP growth of around 1% in 2026, after a contraction of 0.4% had still been assumed in the spring. The unemployment rate, estimated at 2.3% on an annual average, is likewise low by international standards, but higher for Liechtenstein than in previous years, thus also reflecting the continuing challenges.

As recently as April 2026, the IMF had forecast slightly declining real economic growth for Liechtenstein in view of the challenging global situation. The main reason for this expectation of a recession was the outbreak of the war in Iran, which gave rise to expectations of negative effects on the global economy and thus on Liechtenstein’s strongly export-oriented economy. Inflation in the Swiss franc area is expected to remain low at 0.6% on an annual average.

The IMF’s assessment takes into account both short-term developments and structural factors. Already in the spring, the IMF confirmed that the structural factors of Liechtenstein’s economy present a more positive picture. Now the latest economic data for Liechtenstein are also showing the first signs of stabilisation, as reflected in the improvement in the Liechtenstein Institute’s KonSens economic index and in the Office of Statistics’ most recent economic survey for the second quarter. In summary, the Liechtenstein economy appears resilient despite continuing major challenges. Over the medium term, the IMF projects higher potential growth of 1.5% in real terms for the country.

Globally, the IMF expects rather moderate average economic growth of 3% for the current year and projects only a slight upturn in the years ahead. In particular, the Fund warns of the high level of uncertainty and the negative effects of the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Iran, especially with regard to the global availability and cost of energy. The IMF takes a more positive view of the developments driven by artificial intelligence and the booming technology sector, which it sees as offering a wide range of opportunities.

In preparing these forecasts for Liechtenstein, the IMF relies both on data provided by the State and on its own calculations and assessments. Thanks to the ongoing work to improve and expand macroeconomic statistics on Liechtenstein under the leadership of the Office of Statistics, more and more timely data on Liechtenstein are expected to be available in future for these forecasts, which attract considerable international attention.